I'm a gambling man, it's the truth. So here are my tips for placing bets for the year based on the vegas odds here.
Bet on the Marlins (20/1), Giants (25/1), and/or Reds (40/1) to win the NL Pennant. They're sleeper picks, and those odds are great.
Bet on the Rangers (35/1), Mariners(50/1), and/or Royals (50/1). Seattle and KC have great pitching upside, and Texas has a great offense, and the pitching isn't great, but could keep them in contention. Great odds again.
On the World Series Level those teams have great odds again Marlins (40/1), Giants (50/1), Reds (80/1), Mariners (100/1), Rangers (70/1), and Royals (100/1).
For Over/Under for Regular Season Wins, here are my almost sure thing picks:
Boston- 94.5 (under)
Milwaulkee-80.5 (under)
Philadelphia- 87.5 (under)
Chicago White Sox- 79.5 (over)
Cincinatti-80.5 (over)
Florida- 76.5 (over)
San Francisco-80.5 (over)
Seattle-72.5 (over)
Texas 73.5-(over)
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4 comments:
I would suggest not wasting a dime on the Mariners. They were horrible last year and even though they really improved their defense they still have a long way to go with always injured Bedard and getting older Washburn.
K. They were bad last year, but...if Bedard's healthy, he's pretty freaking good. King Felix is ridiculously good. And Carlos Silva has to be better than last year. Washburn is only 34, and has upside. Beltre's in his contract year. Kenji Johjima Should bounce back to some extent and get his average up to .260 or so. Griffey can add 20 home runs and some fan support too. I'm not saying they will win the pennant. But at 50/1 odds I would put down ten bucks to try and win $500. Wouldn't you?
My only disagreement would be on Seattle, i just dont think they have the offense to get past 73 wins. Also even if Bedard and Felix put up the numbers their capable of, that bullpen is pretty awful.
Here's the thing, the offense is underrated. Ichiro will bat above .300 and steal 30-40 bases. Griffey will hit 15-20 homers and post about a .350 OBP. Adrian Beltre is in a contract year and has some power. Don't get me wrong, the offense isn't good, but it's good enough to get them at least 73 wins if the pitching does well. On the bullpen front, I love the Chad Cordero pick up. He's a pretty good closer when healthy. Brandon Morrow had a 3.34 ERA last year in 64.2 innings. Roy Corcoran had a 3.22 ERA in 72.2 innings last year. Cesar Jimenez had a 3.41 ERA in 34.1 innings last year. So I don't get why the bullpen is that bad. Look I mean Seattle most likely isn't going to win it all, or even the pennant, or even the division, hell they might not even go .500. But, they have enough good pieces that if everything goes right they could be a big surprise team.
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