5/11/09

Thinking about the Deadline

I know, it's only May 11th, but I love the trading deadline (July 31st) and all the hype that leads up to it. So I'm starting my hype early with some thoughts/predictions/statements/wishes/etc.

Teams that could be sellers:
Oakland (Orlando Cabrera, Jason Giambi, Bobby Crosby, Matt Holliday,
Seattle (Adrian Beltre, Erik Bedard, Russell Branyan, Jarrod Washburn)
Detroit (Magglio Ordonez, Placido Polanco)
Washington (Nick Johnson, Austin Kearns)
Baltimore (Melvin Mora, Aubrey Huff)
Cleveland (Cliff Lee, Ben Francisco, David Dellucci, Ryan Garko)
Pittsburgh (Freddy Sanchez, Adam LaRoche, Paul Maholm, Ian Snell, Zach Duke)
St. Louis (Rick Ankiel, Kyle Lohse, Dennys Reyes, Jason LaRue)
Colorado (Garrett Atkins, Yorvit Torrealba, Jason Marquis, Huston Street, Ryan Spilborghs)
San Diego (Jake Peavy, Brian Giles, David Eckstein)

Teams that could be buyers:
Yankees (C, RP, CF)
Brewers (SP)
Phillies (SP)
Marlins (SP, 3B, OF)
Cubs (2B)
Angels (2B, SS)
Mets (SP)
Braves (OF)
Rangers (SP,RP)

Does anyone else think that Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik might send Erik Bedard to Milwaulkee, his former employer, to try and acquire some prospects he previously scouted?

The Angels are log jammed in the outfield (Torii Hunter, Juan Rivera, Gary Matthews Jr. , Reggie Willits, plus they have Vlad Guerrerro, who is on the DL). They should try to deal Matthews Jr. and/or Rivera. Matthews is signed through '11, making $10mm this year, $11mm next year, and $12mm in 2011. So it will be hard to find a taker. However, perhaps they could orchestrate a bad contract swap (Edgar Renteria perhaps?). I think a Juan Rivera ($3.25mm this year, $4.25mm next year, $5.25mm in '11) for Kazuo Matsui ($5mm this year, $5mm next year) would be a smart move. Kaz has post-season experience, with fine results (.347 OBP/ .500 SLG 2 doubles, 2 triples, and a homer in 46 postseason at bats). That's crucial for the Angels who expect to go far in the postseason.

Anaheim also needs some power, so they could also look at trading the speedy Chone Figgins and acquiring someone that can play third and hit with power like Adrian Beltre, Russell Branyan, Garrett Atkins, Melvin Mora, or Aubrey Huff.

The Braves could be the suitor that makes the most sense for Matt Holliday. I think he could get traded for a package built around Yunel Escobar. I don't think he'd bring back a top prospect like Tommy Hanson though.

Jake Peavy will get traded. Drayton McLane would probably love to have him in Houston, always buying when he should be selling, but he doesn't have much to give up. The Cubs could make sense, but they'd have to get the budget addition approved. We all know that Peavy has a no trade clause and prefers to stay in the NL. But, if that changes, Texas could be a fit. They have some promising young arms (Harrison, McCarthy, Feldman) along with a plethora of other young players, specifically a fine catching surplus(Max Ramirez, Saltalamacchia, and Taylor Teagarden). Who isn't going to respond to Nolan Ryan calling him up and saying that he wants him on his team? I also could see Peavy going to Milwaulkee for a package built around one of their young players like Alcides Escobar.

The Rockies need to trade Garrett Atkins. If they can get a young pitcher from the Angels or the Twins in exchange for Garrett they should. Names like Dustin Moseley, Glenn Perkins, and Nick Blackburn will surely be mentioned in trade talks.

Anyone else think that Wrigley Field could be a good landing spot for Placido Polanco? They need a second baseman and Detroit could host a firesale this summer. He could be traded for a young pitcher, probably not Jeff Samardzija, but maybe Sean Marshall or Randy Wells?

Now...what we all really care about...What's going on in the Bronx?

The Yanks have a very weak, injury-riddled, bullpen. We also may end up with a hole in center field, although if Melky keeps playing like he has been there will be no reason to worry.
With the bullpen, we need some reliable pitchers. Edwar Ramirez (5.40 ERA), Jose Veras (7.20 ERA), and Jon Albaladejo (5.63 ERA) just don't cut it. The way I see it right now we have two acceptable relievers in the 'pen, Mariano and Coke. Bruney's great, but he's on the DL. Aceves and Tomko could be good, but we won't know until they make a few more appearances. Damaso Marte is overrated, and on the DL. Even when he returns, I just don't see him as a quality arm any more. He hasn't been able to handle the Bronx ever since he arrived last year.

We should be looking to find some relievers via trade. Joe Beimel (1.74 ERA) , Bob Howry (3.38 ERA) , and Rafael Soriano (1.20 ERA) are some possible trade candidates. All are free agents after this year and all could be big parts of our bullpen.

There are some other guys to look at from Colorado (Grilli, Embree, Daley), San Diego (Perdomo), Cleveland (Sipp, Matt Herges), Chicago White Sox (Dotel, Linebrink, Thornton, Jenks, Carrasco), Oakland (Ziegler, Springer, Wuertz, Bailey), Seattle (Aardsma, Lowe, White), and St. Louis (Motte, Franklin, McClellan). These are all clubs that could easily deal a reliever either because of a surplus or because they won't contend this year. Hopefully Mark Melancon will come back up to the bigs sometime in the near future, and be effective. The core of our bullpen should be Mariano, Bruney, Melancon, and Coke. We need some other arms to throw in there and there are so many out there, we just need to go out and get them.

Currently we have a gaping hole at catcher with Jose and Jorge both out. I wouldn't mind signing free agent backstop Javier Valentin, but I'd really love to see us swing a deal for Yorvit Torrealba of the Rockies. The Rox want to get rid of him because he's a backup to Iannetta and he is making more than they'd like to pay ($3.5mm this year and a $4mm option with a $0.5mm buyout). Yorvit had success in the postseason in 07, is an okay hitter, he's better than Cash, that's for sure, and is above average defensively. The Rox need starting pitching and we could offer someone like Alfredo Aceves, Brett Tomko, Kei Igawa, Jason Johnson, or even Ian Kennedy(depending on what we got in return).


This summer will be full of blockbusters, of that I'm sure. But, we've still got a ways to go before we can know for sure where everyone will be heading.

Thanks to Cot's for contract info.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

There's really no evidence that the Cubs need a 2B- they have Fontenot, who is fine. Also, the Cards just signed Lohse to 4/40, so I doubt they'd be selling him.

Steve Shoup said...

I think you can add Danny Baez to your list of trade candidates and to your list of options for the Yanks (yes I believe the O's would trade him in division). I'm not a Yanks fan but couldn't you guys use a solid utility guy. I personally would be worried that Arod could break down. And if either Jeter or Cano had to go on the 15 day the Yanks would be screwed. I don't think Ransom is the answer.

Anonymous said...

The Twins have absolutely no need for Garret Atkins. He would play 1b/3b/DH. Morneua, Crede, and Kubel have those spots easily locked up.

Darion said...

"The Braves could be the suitor that makes the most sense for Matt Holliday. I think he could get traded for a package built around Yunel Escobar. I don't think he'd bring back a top prospect like Tommy Hanson though."
Hell No! I wouldn't even do Escobar for Holliday straight up! No way the A's would even get close to sniffing Hanson as well. I wouldn't mind the Braves getting Holliday, but it would be like Brandon Jones and Charlie Morton for him maybe.

Jon say NO! said...

Right on Darion. We were thinking about trading Escobar for a few seasons of Peavy, why would we trade him for 2 months of Holliday?

Anonymous said...

I think you are right about Jack Z sending Bedard to Milwaukee. There was small banter this winter about a bedard, putz, and +1 trade for Fielder and Gamel...but that quickly faded.

Seattle needs to be very aggressive on the trade market, starting now. Bedard, Wash, Beltre, Branyan, and anyone else with value.

Here is the big one...they should trade Ichiro. It will never happen, ownership will never trade their prize, but what good is a 35 year old singles hitter to a team with no run production. His value will only drop from here as well. Won't happen, but that doesn't mean that is shouldn't.

Anonymous said...

It's obvious you follow the Yankees, and that's about it, especially in reference to the Angels.

For 2B/SS the Angels have Kendrik, Aybar, Izturis, Wood and Rodriguez.

The Angels wouldn't trade for more power at 3B when BRandon Wood is the top power prospect in baseball. Nowhere since A-Roid and possibly Hanley has a SS put up such power numbers (43 HR's 2 years ago, 31 HR's in only 100 games last year and 8 HR's in only 15 games this year). Luckily for the Angels, Wood plays both. Also when we take into account there is no leadoff hitter on that team after Figgins is gone, there's no way he's traded.

Do everyone a favor and stick to the Yankees like the rest of the East Coast media. The rest of the baseball world knows the true pulse of everytime outide of your little rivalry you have going with the gaysox.

$leepy in $eattle said...

I think the yanks really need to get rid of the 2 american league stunt doubles for Homer Bailey of the Reds. aka Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy.

They really screwed up with these guys. I say either bring them up to help with the pen or deal them.

Kevin S. said...

1. I think the Cubs need a 2B because Miles (.220/.273/.293) and Fontenot (.218/.319/.406) have been abysmal this year. Freel isn't going to be super productive either. The Cards signed Lohse in September, before player prices started to drop dramatically. In this economy Lohse is way overpaid. And if St. Louis drops out of the race, as I believe they will, they might find shedding that $10mm of salary to be a smart move, since they can most likely find more talent for the same price in the coming off-season.
2. I forgot about Baez. He's definitely a prime trade candidate, My apologies. On the utility front, I said all off-season we should get a utility guy, and the closest we got was Angel Berroa. But Ramiro Pena has really stepped up and performed well and I'm fine with him in that role
3. Crede is hitting .237/.302/.454 and is always a health concern with his back. He's only signed through this year, while according to Cot's, Atkins has 4.072 years of service time, in other words he'll be a free agent after next year. Atkins despite his poor stats this year, is a decent power hitter and putting him in the middle of the lineup with Mauer and Morneau could give them a dangerous 3-4-5 combo. Basically I'm almost certain Crede will be injured by the deadline and Atkins is a great upgrade.
4/5. Yeah Escobar's a steep asking price I know. But they could put Prado in at short, a definite downgrade but not the worst thing that could happen. I'm sure there would be other players and cash involved as well. And yeah the Braves almost traded Escobar for Peavy, but the deal didn't go down because San Diego wanted more (like Hanson or Schafer). The thing is...2 years ago the Braves traded Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Neftali Perez, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison, and Beau Jones for Teixeira. So if they think a Holliday acquisition can get them to the playoffs they may make a big trade. (I know the contract situations were different, but you get the point).
6. They definitely should trade Ichiro, I almost put him down, but they won't as you said.
7. Ouch! I actually follow most every team, but yes with an emphasis on the Yankees and Rockies. But here's the deal..Figgins is a free agent after this year, and he'll at most be type B, so the Angels may want a better return than a sandwich draft pick for him. Duh, Brandon Wood has power. And he could play short or 3rd. Right on. But sometimes minor league success doesn't translate to major league success right away (sometimes it does, but often times no). The Angels should bring him up to play short and hope he does well, and add a bat at third because the Angels can use some power with Vlad's injuries and declining talent level. At second and short you have Izturis (who's got a .291 OBP and is only slugging .300), Aybar (who owns a .321 OBP), and Kendrick (.285 OBP). So I thought an upgrade might be in order if the Angels want to get to the playoffs/win in the playoffs. I see your points, there are a lot of bodies for those positions, but they just aren't very productive.
8. We aren't going to give up two of our top pitching prospects for Homer Bailey. That's ridiculous. Kennedy just had surgery on an Aneurysm, so he isn't going anywhere. And Hughes can be dominant (like against Detroit) and he's still a young guy, so we'll give him another chance. He's slated to fill Pettitte's rotation spot next year and I plan on seeing him there. Bailey's know for his poor work ethic, so I'm not digging a deal for him right now.

Thanks for commenting guys, appreciate the feedback. Hope I answered any questions/concerns

Anonymous said...

The Cubs would need to open up more than payroll to get Peavy. Vitters plus who in the Cubs organization would get Peavy?

The Cubs are notorious for holding onto their prospects for to long. Example of that is the Pie + trade for Roberts a year ago that got killed. Instead the Cubs trade Pie for basically nothing to the Orioles a year later.

I don't see the Cubs trading Vitters their only good positional prospect and they are not going to trade Samardzija even if it is for Peavy.

The Brewers also don't make sense for a trade for Peavy. I don't believe the Brewers are willing to give up Jeffress plus to get Peavy. Peavy is more of a risk for the Brewers than Bedard or Sabathia was last year. Peavy has that contract that could turn into a Pavano situation in Milwaukee.

I fully expect the Angels, Rangers, or Red Sox to trade for Peavy. Those teams make more sense than the Brewers and Cubs. The Cubs and Brewers would want Peavy but they either do not have the goods to trade for him or are unwilling to part with the goods to get him.