12/5/08

Jake Peavy

It's been a while since we've heard anything about Jake Peavy coming to the Bronx, and some big things have happened since then. First off, the Braves are most likely out of the running for Peavy's services. They traded away prospect Brent Lillibrigde to the White Sox in the Javy Vasquez deal, meaning they are less likely to part with their other young shortstop, Yunel Escobar. They also acquired on of the front line starters they need, in Vasquez, and made a very competitive offer to AJ Burnett, which could end up being a five year deal, which Burnett would almost certainly accept. So the alleged centerpiece of a Peavy deal is no longer available, and the need for Peavy is much less, meaning that the Braves are probably out of the running for the former Cy Young winner. Rumors have flown around about Peavy heading to the north side of Chicago to fill out a super-rotation of Peavy, Zambrano, Dempster, Harden, and Lilly. The Cubs don't have the prospects to make a deal, so they are supposedly thinking of bringing in a third team, which was rumored to be the Orioles. The general assumption was that the O's would get Felix Pie, and they would send Garrett Olsen to Chicago, who would flip him to San Diego for Peavy. Question: Why would the Orioles give up young pitching for an outfielder who has had very little success at the big league level? The O's already have Luke Scott, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis in the outfield, so they aren't desperate for another outfielder. Olsen isn't going to be Cy Young or anything, but if the Padres(who know something about pitching ie. Peavy, Chris Young, Trevor Hoffman, Heath Bell, etc.) value him enough to have him be a major part of a deal for Peavy, shouldn't the O's hold onto him? Why trade away someone who is needed for someone who is not? So, if the O's use logic they probably won't make that deal. And then the Cubs wouldn't get Peavy. Right now, the Cubs are in the process of being sold, meaning they may have budget constraints stopping them from picking up Peavy's salary. The Cubs primary hole isn't starting pitching, it's a right fielder. And Chicago is much more likely to spend cash on a left slugging outfielder than on Peavy. So, hopefully these two most probable suitors can not pull off a trade for Peavy. His other approved teams (the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Astros) most likely won't be able to make a Peavy trade either. The Dodgers would have to pay a premium as they are a division rival, the Cardinals are reluctant to give up top prospect OF Colby Rasmus, who the Pads would certainly ask for, and they have no strong pitching prospects to offer, and the Astros have too little farm depth to acquire Peavy.
Here's where the Yanks come in. We happen to have minor league pitching depth with Phil Coke, George Kontos, Alredo Aceves, Humberto Sanchez, Jeremy Bleich, Andrew Brackman, Ian Kennedy, and Phil Hughes. The Yanks shouldn't part with Hughes, who projects to be a staple in the Yankee rotation for years to come. With all of the other guys on the farm the Yanks could perhaps put together a package that might satisfy the Pads. The Padres have been said to want young-near major league ready pitching, an centerfielder, or middle infield help. The Yankees could conceivably offer Robinson Cano, but he will hold more trade value a year from now if he can have a bounce-back season. We could offer Melky Cabrera or Brett Gardner, but we currently have them penciled in to battle it out for the CF spot. The Pads would probably want Austin Jackson, but he is too valuable to give up. What it comes down to is the Yanks will have to put together a package of pitchers. Perhaps they could offer Ian Kennedy, Chase Wright and Humberto Sanchez. Or maybe the Yankees could offer catcher Francisco Cervelli, as we have depth at the position and Jesus Montero projects to be the catcher of the future. Basically, the Yankees now have enough depth to pull off a swap, but they need to be smart and try to make the trade about quantity rather than quality as dealin Jackson, Hughes, Montero, or Mark Melancon could be disastrous to the future of the club.

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